Dubai is poised to witness the emergence of three new master communities in 2024, further bolstering the villa and townhouse supply in the market and signaling the next phase of expansion for the emirate.
New Master Communities on the Horizon
Property Monitor, a prominent real estate market intelligence provider, has reported that these upcoming developments include two new communities revealed by Emaar—The Heights Country Club and Grand Club Resort—alongside a third one expected in May from Damac.
Property Monitor stated in its report that these projects, situated in the southwest areas of Dubai along the E611 corridor, are poised to address the pressing need for villa and townhouse supply in the market while initiating the emirate’s next phase of expansion.
Preliminary figures for new off-plan project launches in February indicate the addition of nearly 10,000 units to the market for sale during the month, with the majority of launches comprising apartments. Launches for single-family homes (villas and townhouses) have accounted for approximately 15 percent of new units introduced to the market in the current cycle, representing a segment that is currently under-supplied but may soon see alleviation.
In February, Dubai’s property prices continued their modest upward trend, recording a monthly gain of 0.83 percent. This follows a slight increase of 0.2 percent last month and is in line with our forecast of a general deceleration in price appreciation, with anticipated annual gains ranging between 5-and 8 percent.
According to the Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index (DPI), Dubai’s property prices currently stand at Dh1,294 per square foot, just below 5.0 percent over the previous all-time high and market peak recorded in September 2014.
Sustained Growth in Property Transactions
“Despite subdued price appreciation, the monthly volume of sales transactions continues to surge, with a 2.6 percent increase in February, totaling 11,913 sales and marking the highest volume ever recorded for the month. This new record surpasses last year’s figure by a significant 30.4 percent,” stated the report.
Residential transactions, including apartments, townhouses, and villas, dominated the market, accounting for 92.1 percent of sales (10,966 transactions). The highest transacted commercial property types were hotel apartments (2.8 percent), office spaces (2.2 percent), and land sales (1.7 percent).
The report highlighted that the consistently high sales volume is being driven by a seemingly insatiable demand for off-plan properties, particularly in the apartment segment, where sales volumes are steadily rising. In contrast, activity in the villa and townhouse segment remains relatively flat, which the report attributes more to supply constraints rather than a lack of buyer demand.
“In January, a total of 6,384 off-plan Oqood transactions were registered, representing a slight 0.5 percent month-on-month decrease in volume and a 1.6 percent decrease in market share, dropping to 53.8 percent. Title Deed sale volumes, on the other hand, saw an increase, rising by 6.3 percent and now constituting 46.4 percent of all sales transactions. While Oqood transactions are typically used to gauge the off-plan market, the Dubai Land Department data presents several villa and townhouse sales as issued with Title Deeds, indicating completed properties rather than properties still under construction and sold off-plan,” the report noted.
Off-plan transactions continue to hold a dominant market share of 59.8 percent, aligning closely with the general long-term split between off-plan and existing sales segments. Meanwhile, resales transactions—subsequent sales of properties following the initial first-time sale from the developer, whether for an off-plan or completed project—reached 4,970 in February, maintaining a relatively static market share of 41.7 percent compared to the previous month. Initial developer sales retained their significant market share of 58.3 percent, showing only a marginal increase of 0.1 percent.
Mortgage Market Dynamics
In February, mortgage transaction volumes experienced a slight decrease of just under 5.0 percent, with a total of 2,868 loans recorded. Loans for new purchase money mortgages represented 46.1 percent of borrowing activity, marking a 6.3 percent increase from the previous month, with the average amount borrowed being Dh1.77 million at a loan-to-value ratio of 75.6 percent. Loans for refinancing and equity release experienced a slight decrease in market share, dropping by 0.3 percent to 37.6 percent. The remaining 16.3 percent (a decrease of 6.0 percent from the previous month) was attributed to bulk mortgages—those obtained by developers and larger investors with multiple units.
